Mortgage Rate Forecast – BCREA

Since our second quarter forecast, our projected rise in mortgage rates has occurred and accelerated, as the Bank of Canada—spurred by economic growth that far exceeded its outlook—turned suddenly hawkish. The Bank surprised with a 25-basis point increase in July and then again in September, taking its overnight rate back to 1 per cent, where it was before the precipitous drop in oil prices that shocked the Canadian economy in 2014. After the July interest rate hike, markets widely expected at least one additional rate increase in the fall, and so bond markets and lenders had already priced in the September increase by the time it occurred.

Over the past 12 months, the 5-year bond yield has risen 110 basis points to a three-year high of close to 1.8 per cent, prompting a 60-basis point increase in 5-year discounted mortgage rates to above 3 per cent for the first time since 2014. The 5-year qualifying rate has risen just 20 basis points to 4.84 per cent. The latter is an interesting development, because it is the first increase in the posted rate since stricter qualifying rules for insured mortgages were imposed last fall. Rising mortgage rates may complicate the introduction of further mortgage qualifying restrictions slated for October, this time tightening lending for uninsured mortgages.

We anticipate that the Bank of Canada will hold off on further rate increases this year and assess how higher rates are impacting the economic and inflation outlook. However, in the Bank’s recent communications, it has very clearly left the door open for more aggressive tightening should the current torrid pace of economic growth continue. Our baseline forecast is for the 5-year fixed mortgage rate offered by lenders to average 3.15 over the fourth quarter, eventually rising to 3.44 by the end of 2018. The posted 5-year qualifying rate is forecast to reach 5.14 per cent by the end of next year.

For the complete news release, including detailed statistics, click here.

"I value Nic’s opinions as they have always been realistic, honest and reliable and I thank him for sharing his views with us."~ T.Chiang, Vancouver

BC Home Sales Robust and Unchanged in August

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 9,162 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in August, an increase of 2.4 per cent from the same period last year. Total sales dollar volume was $6.2 billion, up 22 per cent from August 2016. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $678,186, a 19.1 per cent increase from August 2016.

“BC home sales in August remained unchanged from July, on a seasonally adjusted basis,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Strong economic conditions are underpinning demand. However, rising home prices combined with upward pressure on mortgage interest rates is expected to temper demand over the balance of the year.”

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 15.9 per cent to $51.8 billion, when compared with the same period in 2016. Residential unit sales declined 15.0 per cent to 73,267 units, while the average MLS® residential price was down 1.1 per cent to $706,839.

For the complete news release, including detailed statistics, click here.



"

I have worked with Nick and His staff since 2005 and found him and his staff to be the BEST Property managers in Vancouver… My downtown clients swear by him as well…. Reliable, Dependable 1st Class

. " ~ Ray Harris Re/max Sabre Realty
, PAST Board Chair and President at Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver

August 2017 Housing Market Update – REBGV

REBGV President Jill Oudil gives a summary of the August housing market statistics and takes a closer look at property sales by price.



"

I have worked with Nick and His staff since 2005 and found him and his staff to be the BEST Property managers in Vancouver… My downtown clients swear by him as well…. Reliable, Dependable 1st Class

. " ~ Ray Harris Re/max Sabre Realty
, PAST Board Chair and President at Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver

Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision – BCREA

The Bank of Canada announced this morning that it is raising its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 1 per cent. In the press release accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that recent economic data have been stronger than expected but growth is forecast to moderate in the second half of the year.

On inflation, the Bank cited some excess capacity and temporary price shocks as factors keeping inflation below its 2 per cent target. Importantly, the Bank mentioned it will be paying particular attention to the evolution of the economy’s potential growth rate (meaning the economy’s estimated long-run growth rate) as well as to labour market conditions and the economy’s sensitivity to higher interest rates.

The Bank has now removed the stimulus it injected into the Canadian economy in 2015 to offset the impact of falling oil prices. With the economy expanding at a 3.5 per cent rate over the past year, that stimulus is clearly no longer required. The Bank seems to be more concerned about the potential for higher future inflation due to an over-heated economy than on the actual very low inflation observed in recent months. That leaves the door open for further rate increases should economic growth remain robust.



"Two words best describe Nick, Consummate Professional. Nick gets the job done, quickly, quietly and most effectively and that is all you can ask. Without knowing me, he set up several introductions with major property developers in Lower Mainland and helped me provide my investors several viable options to expand their portfolios.
" ~ Niraj Shah
 PT&E Senior Account Manager at UOP LLC

Condominium sales drive August activity – REBGV

Competition for condominiums and townhomes pushed Metro Vancouver* home sales above typical levels in August.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in the region totalled 3,043 in August 2017, a 22.3 per cent increase from the 2,489 sales recorded in August 2016, and a 2.8 per cent increase compared to July 2017 when 2,960 homes sold.

Last month’s sales were 19.6 per cent above the 10-year August sales average.

“First-time home buyers have led a surge this summer in demand in our condominium and townhome markets,” Jill Oudil, REBGV president said. “Homes priced between $350,000 and $750,000 have been subject to intense competition and multiple offers across the region.”

There were 4,245 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in August 2017. This represents a 1.1 per cent decrease compared to the 4,293 homes listed in August 2016 and a 19.2 per cent decrease compared to July 2017 when 5,256 homes were listed.

The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 8,807, a 3.5 per cent increase compared to August 2016 (8,506) and a 4.2 per cent decrease compared to July 2017 (9,194).

For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for August 2017 is 34.6 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 16.3 per cent for detached homes, 44.8 per cent for townhomes, and 76.3 per cent for condominiums.

Click here to download the full package.



"Two words best describe Nick, Consummate Professional. Nick gets the job done, quickly, quietly and most effectively and that is all you can ask. Without knowing me, he set up several introductions with major property developers in Lower Mainland and helped me provide my investors several viable options to expand their portfolios.
" ~ Niraj Shah
 PT&E Senior Account Manager at UOP LLC

Robust BC Home Sales Supported by Strong Economy

TheBritish Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2017 Third Quarter Housing Forecast update today.

Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to decline 10 per cent to 100,900 units this year, after reaching a record 112,209 units in 2016. Strong economic fundamentals are underpinning consumer demand and are expected to keep home sales at elevated levels through 2018. The ten-year average for MLS® residential sales in the province is 84,700 units.

“British Columbia’s position as the best performing economy in the country is bolstering consumer confidence and housing demand,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Strong employment growth, a marked increase in migrants from other provinces, and the ageing of the millennial generation is supporting a heightened level of housing transactions. However, a limited supply of homes for sale is causing home prices to rise significantly in many regions, particularly in the Lower Mainland condominium market”.

The average MLS® residential price in the province is forecast to increase 3.5 per cent to $715,000 this year, and a further 4.1 per cent to nearly $745,000 in 2018. However, the provincial average price is being skewed lower as the result of a change in the mix and share of homes selling. Fewer detached home sales relative to attached and apartment properties and a larger proportion of home sales occurring outside the Metro Vancouver region are operating to hold back the provincial average price. Home prices in ten of the 11 real estate board areas are forecast to rise at a higher rate than the provincial average.

 

To view the full BCREA Housing Forecast, click here.

"I value Nic’s opinions as they have always been realistic, honest and reliable and I thank him for sharing his views with us."~ T.Chiang, Vancouver

Summer Housing Market Continues to Sizzle – BCREA

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 9,275 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in July, down 6.3 per cent from the same period last year. Total sales dollar volume was $6.48 billion, down 1.3 per cent from July 2016. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $698,761, a 5.3 per cent increase from the same period last year.

“Strong economic growth, an expanding population base and a lack of supply continue to drive BC home sales and prices this summer,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “However, home sales have edged back 4 per cent since May, with active listings beginning to bounce back from a 20-year low,” added Muir. “If these trends continue, it may signal that more balanced market conditions could emerge before the end of the year.”

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 19.3 per cent to $45.6 billion, when compared with the same period in 2016. Residential unit sales declined 17.0 per cent to 64,107 units, while the average MLS® residential price was down 2.8 per cent to $710,921.

For the complete news release, including detailed statistics, click here.

"I am very pleased to confirm that I have known Nicholas Meyer for over 10 years. During this time he has proven to me to be a person of high integrity and I have no hesitation in recommending him as a Realtor."~ RSL, UK.

July 2017 market update video – REBGV

 

Watch REBGV President Jill Oudil’s update on the July housing market for Metro Vancouver, specifically focusing on the changing trends in demand.



"Nicholas has been my client for over 20 years, as his financial planner and it has been a pleasure working with him over the years. I have found Nicholas to be very extremely knowledgeable ethical, dependable diligent and client focused. He is extremely honest in giving his opinion, even if it means walking away from closing a sale. I have learnt a lot of things in Real Estate from him. We also have mutual clients,and have heard nothing but praises from these clients of the service he has and continues to provide to them. Ihave also recommended clients to Nicholas, since I wanted them to be looked after by the BEST”~ Pat Majumdar,
 Mortgage Specialist