Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision

The Bank of Canada announced this morning that it is raising its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 0.75 per cent. In the press release accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that Canada’s economy has been robust and a significant amount of economic slack has been absorbed. While inflation data has been soft, the Bank expects that this is temporary and that inflation will return to its 2 per cent target by mid-2018.

The motivation for today’s rate increase seems primarily to be that the Bank feels that the stimulus it injected into the Canadian economy in 2015 through two rate cuts is no longer required given a recent trend of strong economic and employment growth. If that is the case, a further 25 basis point increase before the end of the year will likely follow.  After that, the pace of rate increases relies heavily on the trend in Canadian inflation, which to date has been well below the Bank’s 2 per cent target. If that trend does not reverse by early next year, the Bank may decide to stop at a 1 per cent overnight rate until higher inflation emerges.

As bond markets reprice rate expectations, Canadian mortgage rates have returned to levels observed at the beginning of the year. We expect that mortgage rates will rise further in the second half of 2017, finishing near 3 per cent for a five-year fixed rate.

For more information, please contact: 

Cameron Muir	Brendon Ogmundson
Chief Economist	Economist
Direct: 604.742.2780	Direct: 604.742.2796
Mobile: 778.229.1884	Mobile: 604.505.6793
Email: cmuir@bcrea.bc.ca	Email: bogmundson@bcrea.bc.ca

 

Mortgage Rate Forecast – BCREA

 

Highlights:

• Hawkish turn at the Bank of Canada?
• Canadian economy heating up
• Falling oil prices and low inflation may keep Bank on hold until 2018

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Interest rates held as BoC weighs risks – REP

The Bank of Canada held interest rates at 0.5 per cent Wednesday with an assessment of the economy which has some positives tempered with risks.

Governor Stephen Poloz said that while the economy is adjusting to lower oil prices and inflation is broadly in line with expectation, it expects growth in the second quarter to moderate from the first.

The bank is still closely watching high levels of household debt and rising house prices but noted that consumer spending and debt levels are robust and that is spreading broadly across regions.

Macroprudential and other policy measures, while contributing to more sustainable debt profiles, have yet to have a substantial cooling effect on housing markets, the bank said.

In its assessment of the BoC’s announcement, the Conference Board of Canada highlighted the ongoing risk of protectionism and the imbalances in real estate values and rising household debt.

“The subdued pace of inflation and uncertainties stemming from global and domestic risks has the Bank of Canada in wait-and-see mode. The next move in interest rates is likely upwards, but this may not come until early next year.
By then, there will be a greater understanding of how the risks may play out,” said Craig Alexander, Senior Vice-President and Chief Economist, The Conference Board of Canada.