The Bank of Canada announced this morning that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. In the press release accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that inflation has edged up slightly and is expected to return to its target of 2 per cent in the second half of 2018 while economic growth is forecast to slow in the final six months of this year following a very strong first half. 

The Bank emphasized that it will be cautious in making future adjustments to its policy rate as it assesses the sensitivity of the economy to higher interest rates.

There are several factors influencing the Bank’s decision to move to the sidelines. Recent economic data points to a slowing of growth from the soaring heights of the first half of 2017. Moreover, inflation remains muted and newly announced tightening of mortgage regulations will have a significant impact on households, particularly in a rising mortgage rate environment. We expect that the Bank will take a wait and see approach over the next few months as the impact of its previous rate tightening takes hold.

BC Real Estate Association (BCREA) Chief Economist Cameron Muir discusses the September 2017 statistics.

Since our second quarter forecast, our projected rise in mortgage rates has occurred and accelerated, as the Bank of Canada—spurred by economic growth that far exceeded its outlook—turned suddenly hawkish. The Bank surprised with a 25-basis point increase in July and then again in September, taking its overnight rate back to 1 per cent, where it was before the precipitous drop in oil prices that shocked the Canadian economy in 2014. After the July interest rate hike, markets widely expected at least one additional rate increase in the fall, and so bond markets and lenders had already priced in the September increase by the time it occurred.

Over the past 12 months, the 5-year bond yield has risen 110 basis points to a three-year high of close to 1.8 per cent, prompting a 60-basis point increase in 5-year discounted mortgage rates to above 3 per cent for the first time since 2014. The 5-year qualifying rate has risen just 20 basis points to 4.84 per cent. The latter is an interesting development, because it is the first increase in the posted rate since stricter qualifying rules for insured mortgages were imposed last fall. Rising mortgage rates may complicate the introduction of further mortgage qualifying restrictions slated for October, this time tightening lending for uninsured mortgages.

We anticipate that the Bank of Canada will hold off on further rate increases this year and assess how higher rates are impacting the economic and inflation outlook. However, in the Bank’s recent communications, it has very clearly left the door open for more aggressive tightening should the current torrid pace of economic growth continue. Our baseline forecast is for the 5-year fixed mortgage rate offered by lenders to average 3.15 over the fourth quarter, eventually rising to 3.44 by the end of 2018. The posted 5-year qualifying rate is forecast to reach 5.14 per cent by the end of next year.

For the complete news release, including detailed statistics, click here.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 9,162 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in August, an increase of 2.4 per cent from the same period last year. Total sales dollar volume was $6.2 billion, up 22 per cent from August 2016. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $678,186, a 19.1 per cent increase from August 2016.

“BC home sales in August remained unchanged from July, on a seasonally adjusted basis,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Strong economic conditions are underpinning demand. However, rising home prices combined with upward pressure on mortgage interest rates is expected to temper demand over the balance of the year.”

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 15.9 per cent to $51.8 billion, when compared with the same period in 2016. Residential unit sales declined 15.0 per cent to 73,267 units, while the average MLS® residential price was down 1.1 per cent to $706,839.

For the complete news release, including detailed statistics, click here.

The Bank of Canada announced this morning that it is raising its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 1 per cent. In the press release accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that recent economic data have been stronger than expected but growth is forecast to moderate in the second half of the year.

On inflation, the Bank cited some excess capacity and temporary price shocks as factors keeping inflation below its 2 per cent target. Importantly, the Bank mentioned it will be paying particular attention to the evolution of the economy’s potential growth rate (meaning the economy’s estimated long-run growth rate) as well as to labour market conditions and the economy’s sensitivity to higher interest rates.

The Bank has now removed the stimulus it injected into the Canadian economy in 2015 to offset the impact of falling oil prices. With the economy expanding at a 3.5 per cent rate over the past year, that stimulus is clearly no longer required. The Bank seems to be more concerned about the potential for higher future inflation due to an over-heated economy than on the actual very low inflation observed in recent months. That leaves the door open for further rate increases should economic growth remain robust.

TheBritish Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2017 Third Quarter Housing Forecast update today.

Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to decline 10 per cent to 100,900 units this year, after reaching a record 112,209 units in 2016. Strong economic fundamentals are underpinning consumer demand and are expected to keep home sales at elevated levels through 2018. The ten-year average for MLS® residential sales in the province is 84,700 units.

“British Columbia’s position as the best performing economy in the country is bolstering consumer confidence and housing demand,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Strong employment growth, a marked increase in migrants from other provinces, and the ageing of the millennial generation is supporting a heightened level of housing transactions. However, a limited supply of homes for sale is causing home prices to rise significantly in many regions, particularly in the Lower Mainland condominium market”.

The average MLS® residential price in the province is forecast to increase 3.5 per cent to $715,000 this year, and a further 4.1 per cent to nearly $745,000 in 2018. However, the provincial average price is being skewed lower as the result of a change in the mix and share of homes selling. Fewer detached home sales relative to attached and apartment properties and a larger proportion of home sales occurring outside the Metro Vancouver region are operating to hold back the provincial average price. Home prices in ten of the 11 real estate board areas are forecast to rise at a higher rate than the provincial average.

To view the full BCREA Housing Forecast, click here.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 9,275 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in July, down 6.3 per cent from the same period last year. Total sales dollar volume was $6.48 billion, down 1.3 per cent from July 2016. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $698,761, a 5.3 per cent increase from the same period last year.

“Strong economic growth, an expanding population base and a lack of supply continue to drive BC home sales and prices this summer,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “However, home sales have edged back 4 per cent since May, with active listings beginning to bounce back from a 20-year low,” added Muir. “If these trends continue, it may signal that more balanced market conditions could emerge before the end of the year.”

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 19.3 per cent to $45.6 billion, when compared with the same period in 2016. Residential unit sales declined 17.0 per cent to 64,107 units, while the average MLS® residential price was down 2.8 per cent to $710,921.

For the complete news release, including detailed statistics, click here.

BC Real Estate Association (BCREA) Economist Brendon Ogmundson discusses the June 2017 statistics.

The Bank of Canada announced this morning that it is raising its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 0.75 per cent. In the press release accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that Canada’s economy has been robust and a significant amount of economic slack has been absorbed. While inflation data has been soft, the Bank expects that this is temporary and that inflation will return to its 2 per cent target by mid-2018.

The motivation for today’s rate increase seems primarily to be that the Bank feels that the stimulus it injected into the Canadian economy in 2015 through two rate cuts is no longer required given a recent trend of strong economic and employment growth. If that is the case, a further 25 basis point increase before the end of the year will likely follow.  After that, the pace of rate increases relies heavily on the trend in Canadian inflation, which to date has been well below the Bank’s 2 per cent target. If that trend does not reverse by early next year, the Bank may decide to stop at a 1 per cent overnight rate until higher inflation emerges.

As bond markets reprice rate expectations, Canadian mortgage rates have returned to levels observed at the beginning of the year. We expect that mortgage rates will rise further in the second half of 2017, finishing near 3 per cent for a five-year fixed rate.

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Highlights:

• Hawkish turn at the Bank of Canada?
• Canadian economy heating up
• Falling oil prices and low inflation may keep Bank on hold until 2018

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