Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement – BCREA

The Bank of Canada announced this morning that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. In the press release accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that inflation has edged up slightly and is expected to return to its target of 2 per cent in the second half of 2018 while economic growth is forecast to slow in the final six months of this year following a very strong first half. 

The Bank emphasized that it will be cautious in making future adjustments to its policy rate as it assesses the sensitivity of the economy to higher interest rates.

There are several factors influencing the Bank’s decision to move to the sidelines. Recent economic data points to a slowing of growth from the soaring heights of the first half of 2017. Moreover, inflation remains muted and newly announced tightening of mortgage regulations will have a significant impact on households, particularly in a rising mortgage rate environment. We expect that the Bank will take a wait and see approach over the next few months as the impact of its previous rate tightening takes hold.

Government adds new qualifying requirements for uninsured mortgages – REBGV

Effective January 1, 2018, first-time home buyers who don’t require mortgage insurance — those with a down payment of 20 per cent or more — must qualify for their mortgage at a higher rate.
This new stress test won’t apply to people renewing their uninsured mortgage.
Canada’s Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) announced these rule changes today. Draft changes were released in the summer for public feedback. (The Canadian Real Estate Association submitted this response to the draft rules in August on behalf of REALTORS® across the country.)
Under the new rules, the minimum qualifying rate for uninsured mortgages will be the greater of the Bank of Canada’s five-year benchmark rate or the contractual mortgage rate plus two per cent.
OSFI will also require lenders to enhance their loan-to-value (LTV) limits and restrict certain lending arrangements designed to circumvent LTV limits.
These changes apply to all federally regulated financial institutions.
This is the seventh time since 2008 that the federal government has made mortgage policy changes.
Read the government’s full announcement here.
Economic analysis from the BC Real Estate Association (BCREA):
“The impact of the new stress test requirement will be to lower the purchasing power of households by up to 20 per cent. Like past tightening of mortgage regulations, we anticipate that the market impact will be sharp but temporary. In the past, we’ve seen home sales decline in the three to nine months following the implementation of tighter mortgage lending standards, with the severity of the impact fading within one year. However, these new regulations impact a larger pool of mortgages and so the impact could be more significant than in the past,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA chief economist

Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision – BCREA

The Bank of Canada announced this morning that it is raising its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 1 per cent. In the press release accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that recent economic data have been stronger than expected but growth is forecast to moderate in the second half of the year.

On inflation, the Bank cited some excess capacity and temporary price shocks as factors keeping inflation below its 2 per cent target. Importantly, the Bank mentioned it will be paying particular attention to the evolution of the economy’s potential growth rate (meaning the economy’s estimated long-run growth rate) as well as to labour market conditions and the economy’s sensitivity to higher interest rates.

The Bank has now removed the stimulus it injected into the Canadian economy in 2015 to offset the impact of falling oil prices. With the economy expanding at a 3.5 per cent rate over the past year, that stimulus is clearly no longer required. The Bank seems to be more concerned about the potential for higher future inflation due to an over-heated economy than on the actual very low inflation observed in recent months. That leaves the door open for further rate increases should economic growth remain robust.